Vietnam is poised to see a boost in the value of its rice exports by the end of 2026, thanks to recovering international prices and increased demand in key markets. By mid-August, the nation had exported roughly 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with expectations to reach around 7.7 million tonnes by the year’s end. Despite a projected export revenue of approximately $3.9 billion, this marks a 4% decrease compared to the previous year, largely due to lower average prices in the first half of the year. However, a price rebound began in July, with a 5.8% increase year-on-year, which, if sustained, could enhance Vietnam’s export revenue in the coming months.
Global conditions appear favorable for Vietnam’s rice exports, as worldwide supply and demand are anticipated to fall into deficit in the 2026-27 crop year. This potential shortfall could drive global trade to unprecedented levels, compounded by concerns over a possible strong El Niño encouraging nations to bolster their food reserves. The Philippines, a major market for Vietnamese rice, intends to continue its imports, aiming for 5.6 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year. Similarly, China is ramping up rice imports, particularly for broken rice used in animal feed, presenting further opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Vietnamese rice exporters are also exploring promising growth avenues in other regions. Nigeria is projected to experience a noteworthy rice supply deficit, and Kenya has temporarily removed import duties on white rice as part of a quota system. Additionally, Vietnamese exporters are finding success in premium markets, where high-quality and low-emission certified rice has commanded prices exceeding $1,000 per tonne in places like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite these positive developments, challenges persist for Vietnam’s rice industry. The Philippines is contemplating extra safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam and other major suppliers, potentially raising tariffs above 35%, which could impact shipments to this key market. Meanwhile, Indonesia is unlikely to import rice this year due to robust domestic production and ample reserves. Competition from India and Pakistan in African markets and increased Thai presence in China, along with Cambodia’s growing fragrant rice exports, add to the competitive pressures.
Moreover, rising costs for fertilizers, transportation, and energy are straining farmers and exporters. An anticipated El Niño event could also bring drought and saltwater intrusion by late 2026 to early 2027, potentially affecting the next winter-spring rice crop. Although Vietnam’s export earnings stand to benefit from recovering prices, increased demand, and heightened interest in premium rice, ongoing concerns about tariffs, competition, and weather-related risks remain significant challenges.