The Iran-Israel conflict has evolved into something far more dangerous than a regional military dispute — it has become a direct threat to the global energy order. Oil prices surging past $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 are just the opening act of what analysts fear could be a prolonged and devastating energy crisis.
Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities killed four workers and set large parts of Tehran’s energy infrastructure ablaze, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued their most explicit threat yet: push oil above $200 a barrel or stop the attacks. It was a warning that immediately reverberated through trading floors from London to Singapore.
The conflict has spread far beyond its initial theater. Iranian drones and missiles struck Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait over the weekend. A desalination plant in Bahrain was hit, two Saudi civilians were killed, and a US service member died from injuries sustained in a separate Iranian strike, bringing American fatalities to seven.
Russia’s alleged role in providing Iran with targeting intelligence for attacks on US military assets added a chilling new layer to the crisis, suggesting that what began as a bilateral conflict may have drawn in some of the world’s most powerful military actors.
At home, Iran undertook a momentous political transition, with the clerical establishment selecting Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader. It was a historic and polarizing choice — the first time power had passed from father to son in the Islamic Republic’s history, and one that experts predicted would deepen, not resolve, the country’s internal divisions.