A definitive analysis of the 2026 World Cup playoff draw reveals vastly different levels of difficulty for the three home nations, with one path clearly more advantageous and another appearing almost insurmountable. The four European spots will be decided in a dramatic, two-match sprint in March.
Wales holds the best cards in Path A. They are expected to navigate their home semi-final against Bosnia & Herzegovina, and the crucial draw means they will also host the final. While the final opponent is expected to be four-time champions Italy, playing such a momentous fixture at home is the best possible outcome for Craig Bellamy’s side.
Northern Ireland’s draw is the toughest of all. A semi-final away trip to a wounded but formidable Italy puts them in a significant underdog position. Coach Michael O’Neill has a monumental task ahead, and only a truly historic upset will see them through to a potential all-British final against Wales. Their only advantage is the lack of pressure compared to their high-profile opponents.
The Republic of Ireland has a manageable, though challenging, path in Path D. They must first overcome the Czech Republic away in Prague. Their fortunes hinge entirely on this result, as a victory would reward them with the enormous benefit of playing the final at home against the winner of the Denmark vs. North Macedonia semi-final.
The eight semi-finals, including the crucial ties of Ukraine vs. Sweden and Poland vs. Albania, are set for March 26, leading to the four winner-take-all finals on March 31. The consensus is that while qualification will be difficult for all, Wales’s double home draw gives them the clearest opportunity, while Northern Ireland face the longest odds in the entire European playoff bracket.