The success of President Donald Trump’s high-profile Mideast trip could hinge on events unfolding on the ground in the next 72 hours. As he arrives in Israel, a critical countdown is underway for Hamas to release the final 48 hostages, a pivotal moment that will determine whether the new ceasefire holds and if his diplomatic mission can proceed with momentum.
The US-brokered agreement is meticulously phased, with the hostage release triggered by Israel’s just-completed partial withdrawal from Gaza’s urban centers. The White House is hopeful, with Trump stating he expects the hostages to be returned on Monday or Tuesday, which would provide a dramatic and positive backdrop for his visit and his address to the Israeli Knesset.
This first phase is a crucial test of commitment for both sides. For Israel, the return of its citizens, including about 20 believed to still be alive, is a deeply emotional and political imperative. For Hamas, releasing its most valuable bargaining chip is a significant concession, made under what Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu described as immense military pressure.
To monitor this delicate process and the broader ceasefire, the US is deploying approximately 200 troops to the region. They will be part of an international team supporting a civil-military coordination center, tasked with ensuring the smooth flow of humanitarian aid and providing logistical assistance, adding a layer of American oversight to the fragile truce.
As Trump prepares for his summit in Egypt, the world will be watching Gaza. A successful hostage release would validate his administration’s diplomatic efforts and provide the foundation for more ambitious talks on Gaza’s future and regional peace. A failure, however, could plunge the region back into conflict before the summit even begins.